1. Current status of the photovoltaic industry
Global PV additions are expected to reach 320-360GW in 2023, up 33.3% year-on-year. Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the United States is the main incremental market. 2023 China’s PV annual new installations are expected to exceed 120GW, up 29.7% year-on-year. We expect the PV market to maintain a high growth trend.
“Cost reduction and efficiency, scientific and technological innovation” to promote PV new technology iteration, so that the downstream accelerates the expansion of production.
The research of new PV technologies is based on the certainty of the general direction. As we all know, the focus is on determining long-term trends. Technology stages are mainly “0 to 1” and “1 to N”.
New technology links, battery + component equipment maybe become the most technology iteration opportunities. At the same time, we expect the core components of the battery equipment + HJT paste local substitution to become an important breakthrough in the next stage.
2. PV RIBBON–SMBB, LOW-TEMPERATURE RIBBON
PV ribbon is mainly used in photovoltaic modules. As the concentration of the PV module industry continues to increase, then the concentration of the PV ribbon industry will also gradually increase.
Usually, the technical direction of PV ribbon is “refinement”, and in the future, it will be the “low temperature”. The core reason is that it can work with components to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
With the iteration of component technology, the PV ribbon first from rectangular to round. Then gradually from the current 0.3mm or so wire diameter gradually iterative to 0.25mm or so, and then to 0.2mm.
The current 0.3mm or so wire diameter is mainly used with P-type batteries, and the component is MBB, we can call it MBB ribbon. At the same time, MBB is the current mainstream component technology route.
Starting from 2023, 0.25mm and thinner wire diameter (0.2mm) will be released at the same time with N-type Topcon. The module is SMBB (Super Multi Main Barrier), then we can call it SMBB ribbon.
By the high demand for photovoltaic boom, and multi-master grid permeability enhancement pull, SMBB application process speed up. At the same time, the SMBB ribbon market share may be to rise from 9% in 2022 to 15% in 23 years, closely following the pace of N-type TOPCon release.
3. Future direction of ribbon upgrade
The low-temperature ribbon is the future direction of ribbon upgrade. The conventional ribbon has a high welding temperature, which is difficult to meet the demand for HJT battery module packaging. Low-temperature ribbons will solve the process problems. Further, with the release of HJT battery cells, the use of low-temperature ribbons will be accelerated.
The PV ribbon market is characterized by being small and beautiful, and the PV ribbon industry presents a dual-leader pattern, and industry concentration will be further enhanced.
With the expansion of the scale of production and operation, ribbon, which accounts for a high proportion of raw materials, will be differentiated in the capital barrier. The market share of CR2 companies with convenient financing ability and leading R&D strength is expected to increase.