“It is estimated that the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world will be around 350GW this year. The cumulative installed capacity next year is likely to exceed that of hydropower. It will surpass natural gas in 2026. It will surpass coal and become the largest energy source in 2027.” A few days ago, at the 16th SNEC Global At photovoltaic conference, industry insiders made this prediction. Which once again aroused heated discussions on the development of the photovoltaic industry.
On May 19, the data released by the National Energy Administration showed that from January to April this year, the national solar power generation projects completed an investment of 74.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.3%. The newly installed capacity was 48.31 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 186%. Photovoltaic power generation has become the second largest power source in my country after thermal power in terms of installed capacity.
At present, under the general trend of world energy transformation, the photovoltaic industry is ushering in a bright moment. The author believes that on a global scale, the long-term positive logic of the photovoltaic industry remains unchanged and is still expected to maintain rapid growth. Behind the high growth of the photovoltaic industry, we must not only see the changes and invariance in the industry. But also pay attention to the opportunities and challenges in the industry.
Opportunities and challenges in the photovoltaic industry
From the perspective of changes in the photovoltaic industry. First of all, for more than ten years, the scale of China’s photovoltaic industry has continued to expand. Photovoltaic technology is constantly iteratively updated. The cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped by about 90%, and the mission of grid parity has been initially completed. In 2022, the output value of my country’s photovoltaic industry (excluding inverters) will exceed 1.4 trillion yuan, a record high.
Second, photovoltaics are inherently cyclical as an industrial product. The rise and fall of its price will undoubtedly be affected by market supply and demand. For example, in 2021, due to the shortage of silicon materials in the upstream of the industry, the price has been soaring. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, the price of silicon materials will drop in the fourth quarter of 2022. During this period, the profits of the photovoltaic industry chain fluctuated greatly around changes in the price of silicon materials. Relevant listed companies also change with the industry cycle, and their profitability has been adjusted.
“Everything is a cycle”. In the cyclical changes in the industry, both companies and investors should see the constant factors. As well as the long-term and underlying logic of industry development. The author believes that two unchanging factors have become the confidence and motivation for the high growth of the photovoltaic industry.
Reasons for the high growth of the photovoltaic industry
First, on a global scale, the logic of the long-term improvement of the photovoltaic industry remains unchanged. As one of the protagonists of the future new energy revolution, the photovoltaic industry has broad prospects for development. It is generally expected in the industry that the overall new energy industry is currently in a stage of rapid growth. And it will continue to maintain high-speed growth in the next 3-5 years. This will also become an important growth engine for China’s future economic development.
Second, under the “dual carbon” goal, the concept and policy orientation of green development will not change. In recent years, relevant policy measures have been launched intensively. Make arrangements for green development and energy transformation. At the same time, it also clarifies the considerable growth potential of new energy industries such as wind power and photovoltaics in the future. And promotes the high-quality development of related energy industries. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the “Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2023” and proposed to vigorously develop wind power and solar power generation. In 2023, the newly installed wind power and photovoltaic capacity will reach 160 million kilowatts. Which will continue to hit a record high.
It is advisable to look at the long-term scenery. As an important engine to promote my country’s energy transformation, the photovoltaic industry is turning to a mature stage of healthy development. Relevant listed companies are also moving towards high-quality development in the iterative update of technology and the improvement of product market competitiveness. So as to promote my country’s progress from an energy-rich country to an energy-powerful country.
